No Excess of Mortality from Lung Cancer during the COVID-19 Pandemic in an Area at Environmental Risk: Results of an Explorative Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and the restrictive measures associated with it placed enormous pressure on health facilities and may have caused delays in the treatment of other diseases, leading to increases in mortality compared to the expected rates. Areas with high levels of air pollution already have a high risk of death from cancer, so we aimed to evaluate the possible indirect effects of the pandemic on mortality from lung cancer compared to the pre-pandemic period in the province of Taranto, a polluted site of national interest for environmental risk in the south of Italy. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective observational study on lung cancer data (ICD-10: C34) from the Registry of Mortality (ReMo) for municipalities in Taranto Province over the period of 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2021. Seasonal exponential smoothing, Holt-Winters additive, Holt-Winters multiplicative, and auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast the number of deaths during the pandemic period. Data were standardized by sex and age via an indirect method and shown as monthly mortality rates (MRs), standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), and adjusted mortality rates (AMRs). RESULTS: In Taranto Province, 3108 deaths from lung cancer were recorded between 2011 and 2021. In the province of Taranto, almost all of the adjusted monthly mortality rates during the pandemic were within the confidence interval of the predicted rates, with the exception of significant excesses in March (+1.82, 95% CI 0.11-3.08) and August 2020 (+2.09, 95% CI 0.20-3.44). In the municipality of Taranto, the only significant excess rate was in August 2020 (+3.51, 95% CI 0.33-6.69). However, in total, in 2020 and 2021, the excess deaths from lung cancer were not significant both for the province of Taranto (+30 (95% CI -77; +106) for 2020 and +28 (95% CI -130; +133) for 2021) and for the municipality of Taranto alone (+14 (95% CI -47; +74) for 2020 and -2 (95% CI -86; +76) for 2021). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that there was no excess mortality from lung cancer as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic in the province of Taranto. The strategies applied by the local oncological services during the pandemic were probably effective in minimizing the possible interruption of cancer treatment. Strategies for accessing care in future health emergencies should take into account the results of continuous monitoring of disease trends.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Socioeconomic Deprivation on Admissions to the Emergency Department for Psychiatric Illness: An Observational Study in a Province of Southern Italy.

The restriction measures adopted to limit population movement in order to contain the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to a global public health system crisis. This retrospective study aimed at identifying changes in psychiatric admissions to Accident and Emergency Departments (A&Es) in a province in southern Italy during the first two years of the pandemic and was characterized by two different restriction levels (phases 2 and 3) compared to the pre-pandemic period (phase 1). We also investigated the role of socioeconomic deprivation (DI) on psychiatric admissions. The total number of patients admitted to the A&Es was 291,310. The incidence of admission for a psychiatric disorder (IPd) was 4.9 per 1000 admissions, with a significant younger median age of 42 [IQR 33-56] compared to non-psychiatric patients (54 [35-73]). The type of admission and type of discharge were factors related to the psychiatric admission to A&E, and their relationship was modified by the pandemic. In the first year of the pandemic, patients with psychomotor agitation increased compared to the pre-pandemic period (72.5% vs. 62.3%). In the period preceding the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the IPd was equal to 3.33 ± 0.19; after the pandemic started, there was an increase in the IPd: 4.74 ± 0.32 for phase 2 and 3.68 ± 0.25 for phase 3. The IPd was higher for psychiatric admissions from areas with a very low DI compared to areas with a low DI; however, during phase 2, this difference was reduced. In conclusion, an increase in admissions for psychiatric disease was observed during the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2. Patients who lived in the most deprived municipalities generally came to the A&Es less than others, probably because the patients and their families had less awareness of their mental health. Therefore, public health policies to address these issues are needed to reduce the pandemic's impact on these conditions.

A Retrospective Observational Study to Assess the Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Spontaneous and Voluntary Abortivity in the Apulia Region of Italy.

The spread of COVID-19 in Italy required urgent restrictive measures that led to delays in access to care and to hospital overloads and impacts on the quality of services provided by the national health service. It is likely that the area related to maternal and child health was also affected. The objective of the study was to evaluate the intensity of a possible variation in spontaneous abortion (SA) and voluntary termination of pregnancy (VTP) rates in relation to the different restrictive public health measures adopted during the pandemic period of 2020. The analysis concerned the data collected on the SAs and VTPs from public and private structures in Apulia that related to the years 2019 and 2020. The SRR (standardized rate ratio) between the standardized rates by age group in 2019 and those in 2020 were calculated using a multivariable Poisson model, and it was applied to evaluate the effect of public health restrictions on the number of SAs and VTPs, considering other possible confounding factors. The SSR was significantly lower in the first months of the pandemic compared to the same period of the previous year, both for SAs and for VTPs. The major decrease in SAs and VTPs occurred during the total lockdown phase. The results, therefore, highlight how the measures to reduce infection risk could also have modified the demand for assistance related to pregnancy interruption.

Efficacy and safety of oral antivirals in individuals aged 80 years or older with mild-to-moderate COVID-19: preliminary report from an Italian Prescriber Center.

Introduction: Molnupiravir and Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir( r), have demonstrated to prevent the progression to severe COVID-19 in high-risk individuals. Real life data are lacking in the elderly. Methods: All consecutive individuals aged ≥80 years with confirmed COVID-19 and mild-to-moderate illness who received an oral antiviral prescription between 11th January and 31st May 2022 were included in this retrospective single-centre study. The aim was to assess safety and effectiveness of oral antivirals in individuals ≥80 years with mild to moderate COVID-19. Results: A total of 168 subjects ≥80 years were included. Molnupiravir was prescribed in 147 (87.5%) subjects whereas Nirmatrelvir/r in 21 (12.5%); 16 (9.5%) experienced at least one adverse event. Overall, 21 (12.5%) hospitalizations and five deaths were reported at 28 days. At multivariate analysis male sex (OR=4.196, 95% CI=1.479-11.908; p=0.007), a moderate illness at time of prescription (OR=10.946, 95% CI=2.857-41.395; p=0.0005) and a greater number of days from the onset of symptoms to the therapy (OR=2.066, 95% CI=1.285-3.322; p=0.0027) were associated with hospitalization and/or death. Conclusion: In this real-life setting, including older individuals' hospitalizations and mortality at 28 days remained low thanks to the prompt initiation of oral antiviral therapy. The use of oral antivirals can play a significant role in reducing healthcare costs and ensuring benefits among the elderly population.

Early Access to Oral Antivirals in High-Risk Outpatients: Good Weapons to Fight COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: Molnupiravir and Nirmatrelvir/r (NMV-r) have been proven to reduce severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in unvaccinated high-risk individuals. Data regarding their impact in fully vaccinated vulnerable subjects with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 are still limited, particularly in the era of Omicron and sub-variants. METHODS: Our retrospective study aimed to compare the safety profile and effectiveness of the two antivirals in all consecutive high-risk outpatients between 11 January and 10 July 2022. A logistic regression model was carried out to assess factors associated with the composite outcome defined as all-cause hospitalization and/or death at 30 days. RESULTS: A total of 719 individuals were included: 554 (77%) received Molnupiravir, whereas 165 (23%) were NMV-r users. Overall, 43 all-cause hospitalizations (5.9%) and 13 (1.8%) deaths were observed at 30 days. A composite outcome occurred in 47 (6.5%) individuals. At multivariate analysis, male sex [OR 3.785; p = 0.0021], age ≥ 75 [OR 2.647; p = 0.0124], moderate illness [OR 16.75; p < 0.001], and treatment discontinuation after medical decision [OR 8.148; p = 0.0123] remained independently associated with the composite outcome. CONCLUSIONS: No differences between the two antivirals were observed. In this real-life setting, the early use of both of the oral antivirals helped limit composite outcome at 30 days among subjects who were at high risk of disease progression.

Impact of Socioeconomic Deprivation on the Local Spread of COVID-19 Cases Mediated by the Effect of Seasons and Restrictive Public Health Measures: A Retrospective Observational Study in Apulia Region, Italy.

The aim of this study was to investigate the spatiotemporal association between socioeconomic deprivation and the incidence of COVID-19 and how this association changes through the seasons due to the existence of restrictive public health measures. A retrospective observational study was conducted among COVID-19 cases that occurred in the Apulia region from 29 February 2020 to 31 December 2021, dividing the period into four phases with different levels of restrictions. A generalized estimating equation (GEE) model was applied to test the independent effect of deprivation on the incidence of COVID-19, taking into account age, sex, and regional incidence as possible confounding effects and covariates, such as season and levels of restrictions, as possible modifying effects. The highest incidence was in areas with a very high deprivation index (DI) in winter. During total lockdown, no rate ratio between areas with different levels of DI was significant, while during soft lockdown, areas with very high DI were more at risk than all other areas. The effects of social inequalities on the incidence of COVID-19 changed in association with the seasons and restrictions on public health. Disadvantaged areas showed a higher incidence of COVID-19 in the cold seasons and in the phases of soft lockdown.

SARS-CoV-2 and Public Transport in Italy.

Although direct contact is considered the main mode of transmission of SARS-CoV-2, environmental factors play an important role. In this study, we evaluated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on bus and train surfaces. From the buses, we took samples from the following areas: handrails used to enter or exit the bus, stop request buttons and handles next to the seats. From the trains, the sampled surfaces were handrails used to enter or exit the train, door open/close buttons, handles next to the seats, tables and toilet handles. SARS-CoV-2 was detected on 10.7% of the tested surfaces overall, 19.3% of bus surfaces and 2% of train surfaces (p < 0.0001). On the buses, the most contaminated surfaces were the handles near the seats (12.8%), followed by door open/close buttons (12.5%) and handrails (10.5%). Of the five analyzed transport companies, bus companies were the most contaminated, in particular, companies C (40%) and B (23.3%). A greater number of positive samples were found among those taken at 10:00 a.m. and 10:55 a.m. (45% and 40%, respectively). The presence of the virus on many bus surfaces highlights how the sanitation systems on public transport currently in use are not sufficient to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

In-Hospital Mortality in Non-COVID-19-Related Diseases before and during the Pandemic: A Regional Retrospective Study.

Italy was one of the nations most affected by SARS-CoV-2. During the pandemic period, the national government approved some restrictions to reduce diffusion of the virus. We aimed to evaluate changes in in-hospital mortality and its possible relation with patient comorbidities and different restrictive public health measures adopted during the 2020 pandemic period. We analyzed the hospital discharge records of inpatients from public and private hospitals in Apulia (Southern Italy) from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2020. The study period was divided into four phases according to administrative restriction. The possible association between in-hospital deaths, hospitalization period, and covariates such as age group, sex, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) class, and length of hospitalization stay (LoS) class was evaluated using a multivariable logistic regression model. The risk of death was slightly higher in men than in women (OR 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01-1.07) and was lower for every age group below the >75 years age group. The risk of in-hospital death was lower for hospitalizations with a lower CCI score. In summary, our analysis shows a possible association between in-hospital mortality in non-COVID-19-related diseases and restrictive measures of public health. The risk of hospital death increased during the lockdown period.

Application of an Innovative Model for the Risk Management of COVID-19 in a Multinational Manufacturing Company

The COVID-19 incidence in 61 manufacturing plants in Europe (EU), North America (NA) and Latin-America (LATAM) was compared with the incidence observed in the countries where the plants are located in order to evaluate the application of an innovative model for COVID-19 risk management. Firstly, a network of local and global teams was created, including an external university occupational physician team for scientific support. In July 2020, global prevention guidelines for the homogenous management of the pandemic were applied, replacing different site or regional procedures. A tool for COVID-19 monitoring was implemented to investigate the relationship between the incidence rates inside and outside the plants. In the period of May–November 2020, 565 confirmed cases (EU 330, NA 141, LATAM 94) were observed among 20,646 workers with different jobs and tasks, and in the last two months 85% EU and 70% NA cases were recorded. Only in 10% of cases was a possible internal origin of the contagion not excluded. In the EU and NA, unlike LATAM, the COVID-19 incidence rates inside the sites punctually followed the rising trend outside. In conclusion, the model, combining a global approach with the local application of the measures, maintains the sustainability in the manufacturing industry.

COVID19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: An analysis on the short-term relationship between air pollution, climatic factors and the susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Short-term exposure to air pollution, as well as to climate variables have been linked to a higher incidence of respiratory viral diseases. The study aims to assess the short-term influence of air pollution and climate on COVID19 incidence in Lombardy (Italy), during the early stage of the outbreak, before the implementation of the lockdown measures. The daily number of COVID19 cases in Lombardy from February 25th to March 10th, 2020, and the daily average concentrations up to 15 days before the study period of particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5), O3, SO2, and NO2 together with climate variables (temperature, relative humidity - RH%, wind speed, precipitation), were analyzed. A univariable mixed model with a logarithm transformation as link function was applied for each day, from 15 days (lag15) to one day (lag1) before the day of detected cases, to evaluate the effect of each variable. Additionally, change points (Break Points-BP) in the relationship between incident cases and air pollution or climatic factors were estimated. The results did not show a univocal relationship between air quality or climate factors and COVID19 incidence. PM10, PM2.5 and O3 concentrations in the last lags seem to be related to an increased COVID19 incidence, probably due to an increased susceptibility of the host. In addition, low temperature and low wind speed in some lags resulted associated with increased daily COVID19 incidence. The findings observed suggest that these factors, in particular conditions and lags, may increase individual susceptibility to the development of viral infections such as SARS-CoV-2.

Short-term forecast in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. Application of a weighted and cumulative average daily growth rate to an exponential decay model.

To estimate the size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in the early stage in Italy, this paper introduces the cumulated and weighted average daily growth rate (WR) to evaluate an epidemic curve. On the basis of an exponential decay model (EDM), we provide estimations of the WR in four-time intervals from February 27 to April 07, 2020. By calibrating the parameters of the EDM to the reported data in Hubei Province of China, we also attempt to forecast the evolution of the outbreak. We compare the EDM applied to WR and the Gompertz model, which is based on exponential decay and is often used to estimate cumulative events. Specifically, we assess the performance of each model to short-term forecast of the epidemic, and to predict the final epidemic size. Based on the official counts for confirmed cases, the model applied to data from February 27 until the 17th of March estimate that the cumulative number of infected in Italy could reach 131,280 (with a credibility interval 71,415-263,501) by April 25 (credibility interval April 12 to May 3). With the data available until the 24st of March the peak date should be reached on May 3 (April 23 to May 23) with 197,179 cumulative infections expected (130,033-315,269); with data available until the 31st of March the peak should be reached on May 4 (April 25 to May 18) with 202,210 cumulative infections expected (155.235-270,737); with data available until the 07st of April the peak should be reached on May 3 (April 26 to May 11) with 191,586 (160,861-232,023) cumulative infections expected. Based on the average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), cumulated infections forecasts provided by the EDM applied to WR performed better across all scenarios than the Gompertz model. An exponential decay model applied to the cumulated and weighted average daily growth rate appears to be useful in estimating the number of cases and peak of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy and the model was more reliable in the exponential growth phase.